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Book Review A Man for All Markets, By Ed Thorp
The fact that Mr. Thorp dedicates this much space in his memoir to personal finance indicates that he believes lack of education in this area is a serious impediment to the well being of the public. The establishment at the time would not have believed that Bernie Madoff could be a fraud. Princeton Newport ran into trouble in late 1987 when the IRS and FBI raided the firm’s Princeton headquarters which housed the trading operations. This compared favorably to the S&P 500 annual return of 10.2 percent, but more importantly, it was accomplished with a small fraction of the volatility of the overall market. This resulted in a nearly twenty year track record in which the fund never posted a loss over a single calendar quarter. At the time, Mr. Thorp was managing about $400,000 and the accounts were grossing about 25 percent a year, with 20 percent of profits payable to the general partner.
Do you stand when the dealer shows an upcard of 4, 5 or 6 ? Thorp thinks the ordinary player can still beat the game of blackjack. Good luck wasting your life away.
Mr. Thorp retained his professorship for several years before finally dedicating all of his time toward investing in the early 1980s. Although Mr. Buffett’s style of investing extended far beyond Mr. Thorp’s activities, he apparently had a positive overall assessment since Mr. Gerard ended up investing additional funds with Mr. Thorp. The casinos would become aware of card counting and take countermeasures to deal with it, some of which proved to be physically dangerous. By purchasing the relatively underpriced security and shorting the overpriced security, one can exploit the market’s mistake without necessarily expressing an opinion on the merits of investing or shorting the underlying business. The value of a warrant on a common stock is derived based the difference between the current stock price and the exercise price of the warrant as well as the amount of time before the warrant expires.
“To get an edge picking stocks, focus on investments well within your knowledge and ability to evaluate, your ‘circle of competence.'” Thorp popularized the Kelly Criterion for optimal bet sizing in both gambling and investing. Thorp’s success in both gambling and investing came from identifying and exploiting inefficiencies. “Markets are basic to modern economics, and trading is a fundamental activity.” Thorp approached both gambling and investing with a rigorous analytical mindset. He applied probability theory and statistical analysis to develop groundbreaking strategies in blackjack and investing.
Reviews
Overall I liked the book — despite already knowing much of the content from other reads like Fortune’s Formula and the book on Jim Simmons — but I liked others better. He left academia with a heavy heart but realised quickly it was a good decision, since at their firm PNP he could solve real world problems with applied (financial) mathematics. A life choice, comparable to watching tickers many hours per day.
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All the books longlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award Join our investing challenges and compete for rewards while you learn! As Thorp reflects, “for the second time, the Ten-Count System had shown moderately heavy losses mixed with ‘lucky’ streaks of the most dazzling brilliance.
As a result he launched a gambling renaissance. Unlike Mr. Buffett’s intention for his gift to the Gates Foundation, Mr. Thorp would like his gift to continue to provide funding for the chair in perpetuity. Warren Buffett reappears toward the end of the book as Mr. Thorp notes his use of Berkshire Hathaway shares to endow a chair in mathematics at U.C. Mr. Thorp concludes with a compelling account of the causes and aftermath of the financial crisis.
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In retrospect, we can say that people who took cash rather than shares were crazy but virtually no one at the time thought that Berkshire would become Mr. Buffett’s investment vehicle for the next half century. Mr. Gerard had been a limited partner in the famous Buffett Partnership which was in the process of winding down at the time. Mr. Thorp’s ambition early in life was to excel in academia and he appears to have embraced the ethos of viewing scientific research as a public good. Stock market participants wouldn’t break your legs but would exploit a published strategy. One might ask why Mr. Thorp was willing to share his discoveries with the public, first with his technique for winning in blackjack and again with warrant mispricing.
Book Review: A Man for All Markets
If he could maximize his understanding of the system, perhaps he could beat the market, just as he had beaten Vegas. You are forced to push and pull in opposite directions—to an extreme degree—at the same time. Both of these ideas are fantastic advice, but Thorp’s book made me realize that when you combine them there is a tension. But one of my other favorite ideas from Munger is that investors should stay within their circle of competence, and only bet big when they have a high conviction understanding. While Mr. Munger’s own comments from the meeting are worth reading, I’d suggest reading Thorp’s book first. Twenty years later, Ed Thorp’s autobiography, A Man for All Markets, was the only book Charlie Munger recommended at the 2017 meeting of the Daily Journal Corporation.
What challenges did Thorp face in his gambling career as described in A Man for All Markets?
He understood the need to either create an edge or walk away from the table. Thorp began his career as an academic mathematician, but his story is one man’s search for an edge at playing games modeled through probabilities. The results are not the ordinary research musings of finance academics.
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Devising and then deploying mathematical formulas to beat the market, Thorp ushered in the era of quantitative finance we live in today. The incredible true story of the card-counting mathematics professor who taught the world how to beat the dealer and, as the first of the great quantitative investors, ushered in a revolution on Wall Street. Perhaps the most important lesson to take away from this book is that intellectual curiosity combined with a refusal to blindly accept conventional wisdom is almost always required to advance human knowledge and, in some cases, achieve great wealth. Like Mr. Buffett’s instructions to the Gates Foundation, Mr. Thorp insisted that his gift would result in funding for additional research that would not otherwise have been funded through existing financial resources of the university.
Being the first with a system and an edge, Thorp was able to create a hedge fund that produced returns any manager would envy. Thorp’s early success in devising mathematical systems for beating the house, such as card counting, put him at an advantage in finance. Thorp’s early focus on the nuances of blackjack card counting may not be of great interest to money managers, but he provides enough details on his research process and trade testing to keep readers engaged. The edge he found in games of chance led to valuable discoveries in finance, successful businesses, wealth, and fame. Thorp is a model of someone who theorizes how markets and games operate, tests his ideas through evidence and hard work, and then puts his “skin in the game” by playing with real cash. After developing, perfecting and trying his roulette system after blackjack he decided against using it despite its great profitability because he did not want to spend many hours as he then had to do.
Mr. Thorp came up with the idea of developing mathematical models to determine whether warrants are mispriced relative to the price of the common stock. He included Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis in his reading but also went further into scores of other books including the study of technical analysis. It was the fourth night at the tables and the pit boss and casino management had taken note of the lead player’s wins and were not happy. The team of six, three men and three women, pretended not to know each other and made their way to the baccarat tables at the Dunes casino in Las Vegas. You’re being fucked ever time and time again…I don’t mean it properly. Further, you must consider them one at a time, and having once rejected someone, you cannot reconsider.
- Thorp began his career as an academic mathematician, but his story is one man’s search for an edge at playing games modeled through probabilities.
- Thorp’s goal was not to be published but to beat the market.
- After developing, perfecting and trying his roulette system after blackjack he decided against using it despite its great profitability because he did not want to spend many hours as he then had to do.
- Good luck wasting your life away.
In the idealistic view of economics, the stock market is a venue for providers of capital to invest in promising businesses that have the ability to generate attractive returns on capital. While the methods for gaining an edge in baccarat were similar to those used in blackjack and could be pursued through human intellect alone, the challenge facing the roulette player was far more complicated. Driven by an innate sense of curiosity and powered by raw intellect, combined with some help from early computer technology, Ed Thorp demonstrated that players could gain an edge in blackjack a man for all markets through straight forward card counting methods.
- Princeton Newport ran into trouble in late 1987 when the IRS and FBI raided the firm’s Princeton headquarters which housed the trading operations.
- Mr. Thorp retained his professorship for several years before finally dedicating all of his time toward investing in the early 1980s.
- And, getting a favorable second card on one of the 8s, he dropped another $300 on the hand.
- The question of whether to attempt to beat the market or not is ultimately a personal decision.
- Praise for A Man for All Markets “In A Man for All Markets, Thorp delightfully recounts his progress (if that is the word) from college teacher to gambler to hedge-fund manager.
The Pitbull of Wall Street
Conventional wisdom in the 1950s held that it is impossible for players to gain a consistent edge in games such as blackjack, baccarat and roulette. Although I’m in finance, I dab in games of luck, so I was very interested in the blackjack and roulette technique Thorp develop in the ’60s. Thorp gained fame for his 1962 book “Beat the Dealer,” which mathematically proved that card counting could overcome the house advantage in blackjack. A Man for All Markets receives praise for its fascinating insights into Thorp’s life, from beating casinos to pioneering quantitative finance.
If I wanted to win, he told me I needed to count cards. When I was eight years old, my dad caught me trying to cheat at blackjack. This mathematical formula helps determine the ideal amount to risk based on your edge and bankroll. Thorp’s success was not just about innate talent, but a commitment to lifelong learning and self-education.
And, getting a favorable second card on one of the 8s, he dropped another $300 on the hand. Persisting, I waited for the deck to become favorable just one more time.” Soon enough the deck produced a 5 percent advantage, so Thorp made the maximum bet of $300, all his remaining chips. Even so, the cards ran badly, I lost steadily, and after four hours I was behind $1,700 and discouraged. In A Man for All Markets (Random House, 2017), he reflects on his life and the power of thinking differently—and deeply. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. More book reviews are available on the CFA Institute website or in the CFA Institute Financial Analysts Journal®.
